On 6 January 2023, the All-Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, caused quite a stir on social media timelines with a photoshopped picture of him appearing on a campaign billboard.
The victim of the act was Ebuka Obi-Uchendu, host of the popular reality TV show, Big Brother Naija (BBN). In the photo, both Tinubu and Ebuka seem to be sharing the same pose, clothes, and even his wedding ring.
Sadly, this isn’t the first time politicians have been accused of the photoshop act. Here are some other cases:
Atiku receiving a handshake from Trump
During Atiku’s 2019 presidential campaign, a picture of him with a former American president, Donald Trump, was circulated. This was to clear rumours about his ban in the U.S.
However, Africa Fact Check revealed that President Muhammadu Buhari was the original person in the photo in April 2018.
Peter Obi with “Tinubu’s Insignia” Cap
Shortly before the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate joined the party in May 2022, a post by Facebook user Taiwo Olaore was circulated. In the photo, Obi was wearing Tinubu’s insignia cap at an event. This drove the narrative that Obi was a supporter of Tinubu’s campaign or “BATified”.
However, further checks by The Cable revealed that the cap was digitally imposed on his head, as he wore no cap in the original photo.
However, this was thoroughly disputed by Buhari himself. He came out to assure the public that he has not been replaced by a double.
Tinubu with Joe Biden
Shortly before his Chatham House visit in 2022, a photo of Tinubu speaking with the current president of America, Joe Biden, was circulated.
However, the APC campaign media director, Bayo Onanuga, cleared the air that the photo had been doctored and there the presidential candidate’s last location then was at Abuja.
It’s been seven months since the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, dropped his manifesto.
But over the past few weeks, especially since the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, released his manifesto, the Obidient movement has accused Atiku of stealing inspiration from their own candidate. The argument of Obi’s supporters is that most of Atiku’s speeches on the campaign trail don’t reflect what’s contained in his own document.
So, what exactly is contained in the candidate’s 115-page manifesto?
Insecurity
The Plan
Massive recruitment into all of Nigeria’s security outfits especially the Nigeria Police so that additional 1,000,000 policemen and women will be added to the existing total of less than 400,000 — in 4 years
Insecurity is one of Nigeria’s most pressing problems. Atiku’s plan to address that is to recruit one million police officers in line with the United Nations’ recommendation. The recommendation states that the ideal ratio should be one police officer to 450 citizens. Statistics agree that Nigeria is severely under policed. However, does the country really need a million new police officers? Let’s do the math:
Nigeria currently has 340,000 police officers in service and an estimated population of 211.4 million citizens. To meet UN standards, we need 470,000 new officers, not a million.
It’s also unclear if Atiku has thought of how he would pay these officers. The cost of weapons, training and welfare also come to mind. For example, if one estimates ₦150,000 a month as the average salary for 500,000 additional police officers, that’s an additional ₦900 billion yearly to a budget heavily financed by debt.
Agriculture
The Plan
Continue to improve the agriculture sector’s access to financial services, through NIRSAL by de-risking lending to the sector by commercial and development banks. The overall goal is to improve the financial capacity of the farmers and other agricultural producers to adopt new technologies and increase their resilience to economic shocks.
Even though Atiku’s plan for agriculture isn’t comprehensive enough on problem-solving, it’s impossible to disagree with him on the need to improve access to finance for farmers.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has spent over ₦1 trillion in the past seven years. These seven years were used to fill the gaps in food supply with interventions like the Anchors Borrowers Programme. But those gaps have not been filled. Many factors such as the Russian-Ukraine war, the after effects of COVID-19, and even basic things like motorable roads are still against us.
Finance
The Plan
Our primary concern shall be the maintenance of macroeconomic and financial system stability. We shall pursue policies that minimise systemic risk and boost investor confidence. We shall endeavour to bring inflation to the single digits, maintain exchange rate stability and institutionalise fiscal discipline.
Atiku’s answer to inflation is developing the financial sector — banks, pension, insurance and capital markets. But he wasn’t clear enough on how he’ll address the root causes of inflation like soaring food prices, naira depreciation, and overdependence on imports.
Power
The Plan
Government shall create an environment that will enable distribution companies to recover full costs for power supplied to their consumers with a firm commitment to a metering program for all customers. The scourge of electricity theft will be dealt with through a viable partnership between investors in the distribution companies and the government with legislative support for prompt action against electricity theft.
No power system is free of losses. For distribution companies, these losses include metre tampering, false metre readings and unmetred supply. One thing Atiku could have clarified was his plan to remove the commitments of these power losses from firms.
It’s not entirely a new idea, as distribution companies suggested performance improvement plans and loss-reduction targets in 2021. A project like this clearly needs money. But with ₦1.3 trillion electricity intervention fund already down the drain, who will help these firms?
Education
The Plan
Responsibility for funding and control of public primary education shall be transferred to the local governments. Senior secondary and tertiary education, provided through universities, polytechnics, monotechnics, and Colleges of Education (CoEs) will be under the jurisdiction of State governments in the manner that best suits their individual or collective purposes.
On the issue of senior secondary and tertiary education to be given control under the state government, Atiku first mentioned in August 2022 that this was due to the fact the first set of schools were originally under regional government, and the successors are the states.
But one of his aides, Paul Ibe, later covered for him, saying that he instead plans to have a “phased devolution of power.” Something looks fishy.
The Nigerian Voter is a series that seeks to understand the motivations that drive the voting decisions of Nigerians — why they vote, how they choose their candidates, why some have never voted, and their wildest stories around elections.
This week’s subject of The Nigerian Voter is Kachi*, a businessman in his late 30s who told us about his wildest election story and who he wants to become Nigeria’s next president.
Have you voted before?
I voted for Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2011 and 2015.
Why him?
I believed Jonathan was the man to take us forward with our economy. I also never saw Buhari as an option, especially with his military history and everything else.
How would you define your past voting experience?
I voted in Abuja both times. 2015 wasn’t so interesting, but 2011 was fun. We gathered in a primary school and there was no violence. We all stayed and counted the votes in our polling unit and Jonathan won it. I can also remember that was when the smart card reader was introduced and it was a new technology for us. That was the first time we got Permanent Voter Cards (PVC) too.
What’s your favourite thing about Nigeria’s electoral system?
I think it’s the introduction of new technologies such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and others. I think if perfected, they can stop electoral fraud and ensure a better experience for voters.
What’s your least favourite?
I dislike the fact people have to travel to polling units where they registered to vote. I should be able to vote from wherever I am. If I registered in Abuja, but I’m currently in Anambra, I should still be able to vote from Anambra instead of going all the way back to Abuja. It’s a big inconvenience.
Any wild election stories?
I can’t say I had a crazy experience that happened to me personally. But I remember one incident that happened to my colleague in Edo State when we served as election observers for the governorship election in 2020. She was taken by some hoodlums who thought she was an INEC staff. It was crazy. It took like two days for the police to find her.
Wild
Election observers aren’t allowed to interfere with the process of an election by voting and I was observing with an NGO at the time.
How come you didn’t vote in 2019?
I had major bone surgery around the elections and wasn’t fit to vote.
Sorry about that. Are you voting in 2023?
Of course, my vote will be for Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. I believe he’s the most experienced candidate at this time. During his tenure as vice president in the Olusegun Obasanjo administration, he was basically responsible for Nigeria’s economic gain as the head of the National Economic Council (NEC).
That administration recorded the highest level of growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria. Obasanjo attested to Atiku being solely responsible for this. He also presided over the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meetings a few times when Obasanjo was abroad, not like now when Buhari travels with his full powers without handing over responsibilities to Osinbajo.
Is that the bar?
Atiku has also presented a sound manifesto that calls for restructuring and devolution of powers in Nigeria. This is something I support because I know the job of fixing Nigeria isn’t for one man only. I know whoever is clamouring for restructuring should have the political will, and Atiku has it.
He’s been pushing for restructuring since 1999. The PDP has also been pushing for restructuring in one way or the other. The messiah system of governance won’t work. Allow other regions to develop themselves. Buhari decided to run Nigeria as a one-man show, and look where that landed him. Our local governments are doing almost nothing and our state governors are nothing but money sharers. All the tiers of government need to work hard to develop Nigeria.
Are you mobilising people to vote?
Yes, I’m using my influence on social media to get people to vote. I’ve also bought some campaign materials for my constituency and around Abuja metropolis to be shared. I’m giving my staff an election bonus to be able to travel to their various local government areas to vote.
If we asked you to describe the 2023 presidential election campaigns, what word would you use?
Whichever word just ran through your mind, we know it doesn’t rhyme with “boring” or “dry”, because the campaign season has been entertaining.
Millions of Nigerian voters have picked their candidates for the 2023 presidential election, but we won’t know who has more supporters until February 2023. But because some people want to see the future, they’ve been organising polls to frame the picture of what will happen. These polls represent the most dominant public opinion and we looked at five of the biggest polls to see which candidate is leading.
The candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, and the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, ended up with 13% each. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) finished lastwith only 3% of voters rooting for him.
Tinubu finished the poll with 16% of voters in his corner and Atiku finished in third place with 9%.
Fitch Institute Research — Bola Tinubu
Obi’s flawless record as the winner of presidential polls ended when Fitch Solutions, a research company, released its own report and crowned Tinubu the most likely winner.
However, Tinubu’s projected victory wasn’t without a comma as Fitch also projected it would cause social unrest in Nigeria especially due to his choice of another Muslim as vice-president.
We2Geda — Peter Obi
When We2Geda asked 15,438 registered voters across Nigeria in September 2022 who they plan to vote for, 51% of them crowned Obi. 25% of them ended up in Atiku’s corner and Tinubu had to settle for 19% of respondents.
Further analysis also showed Obi remained a favourite in four geopolitical zones: North-Central, South-South, South-West, and South-East, while Atiku was the poll leader in the North-East and North-West zones.
Nextier — Peter Obi
When Nextier polled 2,000 Nigerians in rural areas, they also crowned Obi as Nigeria’s next president. Nextier excluded the home states of the leading presidential and vice-presidential candidates in conducting the poll.
Who’s the winner?
After much deliberation and collation of facts, the winner of the 2023 presidential election polls is… Peter Obi!
But how effective are opinion polls on Nigerian elections?
Polls aren’t considered a big deal in Nigerian elections, but facts don’t lie and neither does history. In 2010, 53% of people from the NOI poll believed that Jonathan would win the 2011 election, and he did. Buhari also won the NOI poll of 2014 with 32% and later became president in 2015. He also won the NOI poll of 2018 ahead of the 2019 election and look who’s still our president.
If the history of polls tells you anything, it’s that they can be very reliable. However, it’s still nothing but a waiting game until Nigerians elect their new president on February 25, 2023.
It’s the World Cup in a few days and while Nigeria won’t be taking part, there are no hard feelings as there’s enough drama at home to keep us occupied. With things getting intense ahead of the 2023 elections, we’ve seen presidential candidates buckle under pressure with twists and slips.
Being the troublemakers that we are, we’ve compiled the top four embarrassing moments of the presidential campaigns so far.
Atiku has his “emi lokan” moment
We start with the unifier. Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), had his first major gaffe at an interactive session on October 14, 2022. Addressing the Arewa Joint Committee, Atiku was asked what his plans were for the North.
We should have known he was up to no good when he turned up in sneakers. He took the mic, and the words that came from his mouth were in stark contrast to his goal of unifying Nigerians.
His words: “I think what the average northerner needs is someone who is from the North, and who also understands the other parts of Nigeria, and who has been able to build bridges across the rest of the country. This is what the northerner needs. He doesn’t need a Yoruba candidate, or an Igbo candidate. This is what the northerner needs.”
Nigerians had interesting reactions to this online.
Atiku has had his own "emi lokan" moment🤣. He reportedly told members of the Northern Elders Forum in Kaduna that northerners need him, not a Yoruba or Igbo candidate. That's reckless ethnic baiting. They're all the same.
Bola Tinubu (BAT) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is no stranger to controversies. If anything, he delights in them. At a summit in Kaduna, around the same time Atiku was pulling his “emi lokan” stunt, BAT reminded us that he’s the true king of comical errors.
In what was supposed to be a compliment to Nasir El-Rufai, BAT still found a way to throw a jab at him. He said: “I’m begging Nasiru El-Rufai not to run away for (an) additional degree. Your vision, creativity and resiliency in turning a rotten situation into a bad one is necessary at this critical time.”
His spokesman called it a “slip of tongue”. But as you’ll find out soon, that would be one of several slips to come.
Obi and his unverifiable facts
Peter Obi (The Rock) of the Labour Party (LP) has no doubt captured a lot of supporters, building his Obidient army. And if there’s anything he is famous for, it is quoting statistics to back up his claims. However, not all rocks are solid, as Obi has shown us.
His most prominent gaffe came in an interview on Channels TV. On July 25, 2022, he claimed that of the 150 players playing in the National Basketball Association (NBA), almost 100 are Nigerians.
You know how Obi always says “Go and verify”? Well, fact-checkers did and they found his claim to be untrue. Turns out that among the 109 international players registered for the league’s 2021-2022 season, only five — and not “almost 100” — are from Nigeria.
The BAT strikes again
BAT’s most recent gaffe places him head and shoulders above the presidential pack. At a rally on November 15, 2022, in Plateau state, the BAT lost track of his own political party when he asked God to “bless the PDAPC”. We checked, and there’s no party by that name.
If you’re a fan of the unifier, now’s the time to look away. The last time we brought you Atiku Abubakar-related gist, we answered the question of where he was and what he’s been up to. This time, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is in a new situation: inside hot soup.
What’s the gist?
Well, Atiku had a week-long trip to the United States where he continued his campaign. The public reactions were mixed, ranging from satire to applause from his supporters who said his trip neutralised any rumours that he can’t set foot in the U.S. due to a corruption indictment.
If you think H.E Atiku Abubakar's visit to the US was a total miss and not a political master-stroke then you're a political neophyte. Peter Obi toured Europe & the United States here is a breakdown of how both men fared and what it means for the 2023 elections.
But that’s just the appetiser. The real gist is that Atiku may have accumulated an unpaid debt of $5.9 million for the US visa.
According to The Nation, Legacy Logistics LLC Limited, the firm that reportedly secured Atiku’s visa, is yet to be paid. The candidate’s legal adviser, Prof. Maxwell Gidado (SAN), has said the company is lying and trying to extort Atiku..
If Atiku really needed to prove to us he could set his foot on US soil without being arrested, it appears the cost may have been way too steep.
How has Atiku responded?
For now, it appears the unifier is keeping his mouth shut on the matter. He hasn’t yet issued any statements addressing the report, and his spokespersons are unlooking.
While people online drag him for being an onigbese, he remains focused on his presidential campaign and is expected to be in Katsina on November 5, 2022. Maybe he’d have a response for us by then.
One thousand and one things are happening with a presidential election, especially one as chaotic as Nigeria’s 2023 race.
These are the highlights of the 2023 presidential election campaigns in the past week.
Obi won’t give shishi but he needs a lot of it
The Peter Obi presidential campaign uncovered a deep dark secret last week that stunned everyone across Nigeria: presidential campaigns cost money. Who saw that one coming? Before you know it, someone would tell us Abacha was a thief.
“He was only saving Nigeria’s money for future use”
The national chairman of the Labour Party (LP), Julius Abure, opened the door to a dash of public ridicule when he appealed for donations to the party’s campaign for the 2023 presidential election. Crowdfunding for presidential elections isn’t an entirely new concept, but it was a bit comical coming from a campaign that has made penny-pinching a trademark.
Nigeria’s electoral laws set a limit of ₦5 billion to run a presidential campaign. How much of that can the Peter Obi campaign raise?
Tinubu finally wins something, but there’s a twist
The presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, has survived a lot of things in his campaign — there was that pee thing, the constant questions about his health and his many gaffes.
But his campaign has been turning a good corner in the past couple of weeks, and he crowned that last week with an endorsement by Fitch Ratings which projected victory for him in 2023.
Peter Obi has won three major polls released in the past couple of months, but the Fitch report predicted a strong Tinubu victory — an outcome that validates his entitled campaign to succeed Buhari.
But while the report may be good news for Tinubu, it’s not such a great one for Nigerians as Fitch also projected his victory will lead to social instability in Nigeria.
Atiku’s American wonder
Atiku has to tick three things on his checklist whenever he runs for president — prove he’s not a northern extremist, beg Obasanjo to take back the stealing allegations and take a trip to the United States.
Last week, the former vice president packed his campaign team and flew to the U.S. to once again prove that he can waltz into the country where his critics say he’s wanted for corruption. He did a lot of standing around and taking fly jpegs in America and nobody saw him in handcuffs.
Roc Boys no drip pass this one
If the presidential election was a game of stunts, Atiku won last week hands down and should be crowned president as soon as he returns to Nigeria. But if he hopes to have a victorious campaign, there’s one more thing on his checklist he has to resolve and the name is Nyesom Wike.
Kwankwaso has a miracle up his sleeves
Does anyone still remember Rabiu Kwankwaso is in the presidential race? The former Kano State governor was primed as the dark horse candidate to challenge the APC and PDP in 2023. But even though he’s been dislodged from public consciousness by Obi’s rise and is now only rated fourth in a three-horse race, Kwankwaso isn’t giving up without a fight.
The former governor is still rallying his impressive crowd of Kwankwasiyya supporters with their famous red caps and posting photos of large rally crowds on his Twitter.
But does anyone trust it’ll translate into a win for the candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP)? A chieftain of his party, Buba Galadima, seems to think he’ll perform the miracle of the five loaves of bread and two fish by sweeping over “50-something million votes” in the north while nicking more votes in the southern region.
At 39, Christopher Imumolen of the Accord Party (AP) is the youngest presidential candidate in the race for the 2023 presidential election, and he won’t let you forget it. He’s made many claims about being the “authentic youth” option and wants young Nigerians — the most populated voting group — to elect him to make a statement.
Christopher Imumolen started his tour in Togo with plans to also touch down in Benin Republic, Ghana and Liberia. Even though he refused to be drawn into a debate on why other candidates are doing diaspora outreach in exotic places in Europe and North America, Imumolen seemed to suggest his own West African tour had more substance. We can’t begrudge a man his days of local outreach.
Sowore is pocket-watching
Remember how the law says it should cost a maximum of ₦5 billion to run a Nigerian presidential campaign? Well, it’s kind of an open secret that Nigerian politicians spend more than the limit and they get away with it because authorities don’t enforce election finance laws. The candidate of the African Action Congress (AAC), Omoyele Sowore, wants that to change for 2023 to create a level playing field.
Which is why you have laws and a referee like INEC
You can understand why this is coming from a candidate who could only raise a grand total of ₦157.9 million for his 2019 campaign. But Nigeria does need to get serious with enforcing laws to make sure everyone is playing by the books. Why have laws if you won’t enforce them? Is this a third-world country?
Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), officially flagged off his campaign early in October 2022. He has since hopped across the country for his unifier mission.
But what exactly has he been up to?
How has his campaign fared so far?
Well, the answer depends on who you ask. His fans have called his style of campaign unique and focused. His haters think he’s in last position in a three-horse race for the crown. But this is a former vice president of Nigeria we’re talking about and a massive crowd of supporters turned up for the flag-off of his campaign.
The biggest problem for Atiku’s campaign is he has enemies from within trying to pour sand in his garri.
On October 25, 2022, the governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, his fellow party member, publicly withdrew his support for Atiku for “dishonoring him” and working against the interests of his state. This withdrawal is connected to Atiku’s messy feud with Nyesom Wike, the governor of Rivers State.
Wike is yet to forgive Atiku’s transgressions since he lost the party’s ticket to him. So, it’s no surprise that every day is WW III with those two.
On his most recent campaign stop in Edo State, Atiku said his number one priority, if elected president, would be Nigeria’s unity. But it’s difficult to overlook the irony that he can’t unite his own party.
Where was Atiku last seen?
On October 25, 2022, Atiku visited residents of Bayelsa State affected by the floods that have devastated many parts of Nigeria. The candidate didn’t just show up with love and light, but also some cash — he donated ₦55 million towards the welfare of the victims.
Call him Mr Owonikoko
Atiku blamed climate change for the floods which have killed over 600 Nigerians in 2022. He called on the government to set up a relief fund to assist the victims who have lost their homes and sources of livelihood.
So where next for the unifier?
According to his campaign timetable, Atiku is expected to address the Commonwealth of Nations in the United Kingdom on October 27, 2022. He would then move his presidential campaign to Ekiti State on November 1, and neighbouring Ondo State on November 2.
The candidate’s expected to tour the remaining states in Nigeria before the presidential election holds on February 25, 2023. For his sake, we hope he manages to put his home in order or there may be some serious consequences.
This is Zikoko Citizen’s Game of Votes weekly dispatch that helps you dig into all the good, bad, and extremely bizarre stuff happening in Nigeria and why they’re important to you.
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If you’re feeling mischievous and throw a stone into a United Kingdom hospital, there are good odds it’ll land on a Nigerian-trained doctor who’ll scream, “Wetin be that?”
Seven years ago when Buhari became president, only 233 Nigerian-trained doctors moved to the UK. But that’s only 33 more than the 200 Nigerian doctors who moved to the UK in September 2022 alone.
If you had to guess how many Nigerian-trained doctors have relocated to the United Kingdom the entire year, what would your number be? According to the UK’s General Medical Council, the number of fleeing doctors between January and September is 1,307.
And there are more doctors waiting on the queue to get out of the country [Image source: Zikoko Memes]
For a country that already has a shortage of doctors in the health sector, losing even one doctor to other countries is a concern. To lose 1,307 professionals in just nine months is a tragedy. According to research by BMJ Global Health, low and middle-income countries lose $15.86 billion annually when locally-trained doctors migrate to high-income countries. The greatest total costs are incurred by India, Pakistan, South Africa and, of course, Nigeria ($3.1 billion).
The unchecked loss of highly-qualified doctors to new dispensations poses a threat to Nigeria’s already troubled health sector. Not only is it a loss of human capital with economic consequences, but can be a matter of life and death for Nigerians that need quality care.
[Image source: Zikoko Memes]
Nigerian doctors, like other Nigerians surfing the japa wave, are fleeing poor working and living conditions in pursuit of better opportunities abroad, and you have to wonder when the Nigerian government will tackle the exodus with ideas more sophisticated than just simply chaining them to hospital beds.
What else happened this week?
The 2023 presidential election is finally gaining life
The top three candidates for the 2023 presidential election finally breathed some life into their campaigns two weeks too late. On September 28, 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) officially opened the floor for candidates to start campaigning, but all three have been sluggish with kicking things off.
What changed this week?
The candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, announced a presidential campaign council comprising 1,234 (seriously, this number isn’t a joke) members. Former presidential spokesperson and Obi’s current ride-or-die, Doyin Okupe, is the campaign’s director-general. Okupe boasted Obi already has a minimum of 15 million votes waiting for him at the polls, as long as INEC doesn’t do anyhow.
Notably, Obi skipped the committee’s unveiling ceremony for a speaking engagement at the ICAN 52nd Annual Accountants Conference. But with how low the standards have got, you’re just thankful he wasn’t off somewhere in London secretly treating an undisclosed illness.
The candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, officially flagged off his campaign and promised Nigerians would never again suffer from hunger and insecurity.
[Image source: Zikoko Memes]
But his campaign is still haunted by the ghost of Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, who predictably didn’t show up at the campaign launch, putting a question mark on Atiku’s high regard for himself as a unifier. In fact, days later, the party postponed two campaign outings in two states reportedly to give the candidate more time to patch things with Wike.
The candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, also oversaw the launch of the party’s Women Presidential Campaign Committee. He charged his campaigners to preach his gospel and politely tell people that want his party out of government to shut their dirty mouths. It’s a great way to endear yourself to undecided voters if the goal is to lose the election.
Question of the week
What should the Nigerian government be doing about the ongoing flooding crisis that it isn’t already doing?
Click here to tweet your answer to @ZikokoCitizen on Twitter.
Ehen, one more thing…
The governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, appointed over 28,000 officials for political units this week. When you get over the taxpayer cost of these appointments, you have to wonder if the governor is preparing for an imminent war the rest of us don’t know about.
On January 15th, 2022, a former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, praised the Super Eagles of Nigeria on his Twitter account. He got hundreds of responses but most of them weren’t talking about his original message about the national football team.
Many of the Nigerians in his comment section were begging him to run for president. One of the replies under that tweet was so threatening that Obi had to respond directly. The Twitter user threatened legal action against the former Anambra State governor if he failed to throw his hat into the ring for the 2023 presidential election. In response, Obi said, “Give me some time.”
In 2003, four years after Nigeria returned to the loving arms of democracy, billionaire businessman, Peter Obi, contested for the seat of Anambra State governor. The Independent Electoral National Commission (INEC) declared Chris Ngige the winner of that election but Obi disagreed with the result and started a legal battle that lasted three years.
In 2006, the court ruled that Obi was the winner of the election. It was the first time a court decided the winner of a governorship election in Nigeria. Obi assumed office in March 2006 but in less than a year, Anambra State lawmakers impeached him (in November 2006) over alleged corruption. Obi claimed it was a witch-hunt because he refused to inflate the state’s annual budget. He went back to court again and won; the impeachment was overturned and he made a triumphant return in February 2007.
When it was time for another governorship election in 2007, Obi wasn’t on the ballot because he believed he was entitled to four full years in office as governor. Andy Uba won the 2007 election, and Obi had to vacate the Government House in May 2007. But he ran straight to his babalawo, the Supreme Court.
The court agreed that Obi deserved his four-year term and nullified Anambra’s 2007 governorship election to return him to office to complete his first term. This victory became the precedent for other governors who would go on to win their mandates in court and is the reason why a total of eight states now have off-cycle elections. Obi won a second term in office in 2010 and remained the governor of Anambra State till 2014.
Transmission
In 2014, Obi did what all Nigerian politicians do in their lifetime: he switched parties. He had spent his eight years as Anambra State governor as a member of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). But just months after he left the Government House, he dumped the party for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which was in control of the Federal Government at the time.
Five years later, Obi found himself on the PDP’s presidential ticket as the running mate to former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, for the 2019 general elections.
Even though they lost the election, Obi was one of the stand-out characters from the campaign trail. His vibrant spirit, track record as governor and obsession with statistics imported from China were some of the 2019 election campaign highlights. It was his first true introduction to the national spotlight — the moment he unwittingly sowed the seeds of the Obidient movement.
The rise of Obidience
By the beginning of 2022, the 2023 presidential election was already shaping up as the usual two-horse race between the PDP and the All Progressives Congress (APC). And in those two parties, Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar were already being primed to lead their tickets. But both men, veteran politicians from all the way back in the 90s, had an image problem that made them hard to swallow, especially for young voters.
As an alternative, the Nigerian youth looked across the landscape for who had more palatable appeal. Their eyes fell on Obi. That’s why hundreds of young Nigerians hounded him to run for president in response to that January tweet where he was talking about football.
Two weeks later, Obi tweeted that he would “step into the field” if the PDP zoned the presidential ticket to the south. But when it was clear the party would renege on the gentleman zoning agreement, and Atiku remained the favourite to win the party’s ticket, Obi’s growing supporter base started prompting him to leave the party and join another one that would put him on the ballot.
This move would be tricky because only the APC and the PDP command political “structures” strong enough to win national elections. But as his chances of clinching the PDP ticket dwindled, Obi took the plunge and joined the Labour Party (LP).
Obi’s move enjoyed widespread support among the demographic of young Nigerians disillusioned with the establishment, and they vowed to carry his campaign on their heads. And as the support base swelled, they needed a name. They became Obidients.
What’s the appeal of Peter Obi?
Every Nigerian election has a candidate billed as the “messiah” to lead Nigerians out of the wilderness to the Promised Land. Even though Obidients have stopped short of using that tag, Peter Obi represents the wealth of option Nigerians don’t usually get in presidential elections. He’s distinguished himself, with his much-talked-about humility, financial prudence, and a certain kind of sophistication that’s become a rarity in Nigerian elections.
Since winning LP’s presidential ticket, Obi’s campaign has been fueled chiefly by supporters with a deep sense of commitment to his ministry and the hope that he represents. In response to criticism that he has no political structure to win a national election, Obidients have rolled up their sleeves and got down to work. They’ve moved what was once derided as a social media campaign to the grassroots to win more voters to the Obidient movement.
The result of the work is starting to show in opinion polls that have boosted confidence about Peter Obi’s chances. According to three prominent polls, including one by Bloomberg, Obi is ahead of his two main rivals and is primed to win the election next year.
One of Peter Obi’s most prominent narratives is that he’s a political “outsider” even though he’s an establishment politician who’s broken bread with the same political class Nigerian youths are desperate to retire. But the candidate has had to fight for a political career that his supporters feel makes him different.
To end up inside Aso Rock Villa, he’ll need his Obidient force to pull off the impossible and spit in the face of an unyielding status quo.
