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  • In November 2022, we reported how the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) made the voters register available online for the first time ever for public reviews.  The review process shut down two weeks later on November 25, 2022.

    In that time, we also highlighted some of the issues observed in the register — underage voters, double registrations and suspicious delisting of voters. With the process concluded, we have some useful ideas on how INEC can sanitise the voters register.

    INEC needs to clean up its own house

    Underage voting remains a criminal offense in Nigeria. Yet, more worrying is that INEC officials allowed these infractions to take place at scale. Even by using the eye test, one can tell if someone is up to the required age of voting which is 18 Nigeria. The officials responsible for registering underaged voters are yet to be prosecuted even though the  mess goes all the way back to 2011. If INEC is really serious about cleaning the voters register, it needs to start by cleaning its own house. Charity begins at home.

    INEC should rely more on technology

    Technology doesn’t solve all problems — even football that introduced the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) to reduce refereeing errors still struggles with controversies. Yet, the benefits outweigh the challenges. For example, we know the extent of the discrepancies in the voters register only because INEC went digital.

    It’s a good step in the right direction, but the commission can do more. At least that’s what the Lawyers for Peter Obi, a group that supports the Labour Party (LP), seem to think. In a statement on December 1, 2022, they urged INEC to employ modern software and artificial intelligence (AI) to help in cleaning up the register. INEC already uses the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to verify voters’ identity on election day. But it must also explore other options to stop underaged registeration fraud.

    Consolidate database with the NIMC database

    In September 2022, the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) said over 89 million Nigerians had registered for their National Identity Number (NIN). That number is about four million shy of the 93 million voters that INEC has in its register. 

    It might be a good idea to consolidate those two databases into one. One, it would resolve fake identities. Two, it could also be helpful in purging names of deceased people who still exist in the voters register.

    Republish the voter register online more frequently

    Admittedly, this is an issue that goes beyond INEC and may have to be amended in the electoral act. Still, it makes sense for the voters register to be subjected to continuous scrutiny instead of the current two weeks. It improves transparency and extends the time for reviews, claims and objections for a register with over 93 million names.

  • One unfortunate feature of Nigerian elections that has refused to go away is violence in varying forms. It’s the kind of baggage no one wants, but everyone has to deal with it because some people still treat elections as do-or-die. 

    What’s happened now?

    On November 27, 2022, unknown people set fire to the office of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Izzi Local Government Area of Ebonyi State. The incident happened around 10 a.m. 

    Did anyone get hurt?

    Fortunately, no one was hurt in the attack. But INEC lost some materials, including:

    • Unknown number of Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVC)
    • 340 ballot boxes
    • 130 voting cubicles
    • 14 electric power generators
    • Large water storage tanks
    • Office furniture

    We’ve seen this before

    On November 10, 2022, arsonists attacked INEC offices in Abeokuta South, Ogun State and Ede South, Osun State. You can’t help but notice the sad trend in these events. 

    Over the past three years, similar attacks have occurred in different parts of the country: Abia, Rivers, Anambra, and Imo. According to the INEC chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, about 50 INEC offices have been attacked by arsonists in 21 states.  

    What does this mean for the 2023 elections?

    The electoral process is sabotaged

    One of the critical things needed for a free and fair election is the availability of important things like PVCs and ballot boxes. The attack on the INEC office in Abeokuta South destroyed 65,699 uncollected PVCs. This creates a problem for INEC to reproduce new cards which we can’t say always works out. If those PVCs aren’t replaced it would deny some Nigerians their rights to vote. 

    Political apathy

    Attacks on INEC offices are designed to heighten tensions and keep voters away from polling units because they seem unsafe. Nigeria already has a big issue with low turnout of voters and apathy caused by threat of violence will only make it worse. After all, who wants to be an unwilling martyr? 

    Hopefully, the Nigerian security forces will take appropriate measures to secure INEC offices better and find a way to arrest the criminals. The fate of the country being decided at the polls depends on it.

  • Just three months to the start of the 2023 elections, the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Abdullahi Adamu, started a beef with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). It wasn’t about electoral violence or vote buying but rather a new feature of the 2023 elections.

    The APC national chairman believes Nigeria isn’t ready to use the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) for elections because we have unresolved network and power supply issues. 

    But what exactly is the BVAS, why’s Adamu pressed about it and why should Nigerian voters care about its existence? 

    BVAS eliminates voter identity fraud

    The BVAS is an electronic device that exists primarily to authenticate the identity of voters. It has a fingerprint and facial detection sensor to limit voter fraud which is a big problem in Nigerian elections.  

    BVAS is an upgrade on the smart card reader which was used to authenticate voters with only their fingerprints in the 2015 and 2019 general elections. Unlike the smart card reader, BVAS also helps INEC officials to electronically upload election results from the polling units.

    The smart card reader is being phased out in 2023 [Source: Daily Post]

    What are the benefits?

    According to INEC, BVAS is the solution to all problems regarding electoral malpractices. In 2018, for instance, there were cases of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) being cloned and sold on Alibaba Express before the 2019 elections.

    With the BVAS, such occurrences would no longer be the case, as every voter can be accurately verified and accounted for. It also makes PVC selling unwise, as party agents can no longer rig an election with the use of fake or illegitimate PVCs.  

    But how efficient is this BVAS?

    BVAS may seem like the answer to INEC’s prayers, but it’s not flawless. The device needs a steady 4G data connection to run seamlessly and we all know how erratic data connection is in Nigeria.


    BVAS malfunction caused hitches during the Anambra governorship election in 2021. The glitches forced INEC to extend the voting time by an extra hour and a half. Using BVAS also caused challenges during the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council Election of February 12, 2022.

    Does BVAS help Nigeria in the long run?

    BVAS is a welcome addition to Nigeria’s electoral process as it eliminates voter identity fraud which is a big problem. But it still doesn’t completely address identity fraud issues as we recently saw with scores of underage voters on INEC’s register. 

    So, what if it verifies an illegitimate voter or allows a voter to cast his or her votes more than once? That defeats the purpose of the device to completely eliminate identity fraud.


  • On November 22, 2022, the Abuja division of the Federal High Court ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to resume the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise. The ruling was based on a lawsuit filed by four Nigerians who accused the commission of depriving Nigerians the right to register to vote ahead of the 2023 general elections. 

    Here’s what you need to know about this latest drama. 

    This isn’t the first time INEC is getting sued

    The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) also sued INEC in June for planning to end registrations on June 30, 2022. INEC extended the deadline to July 31 to accommodate the case until the court ruled in the commission’s favour on July 13.

    In the ruling, the court noted that INEC was at liberty to pick a deadline of its choice as long as it’s not in conflict with the law.

    But what does the law say??

    The 2022 Electoral Act stipulates, “The registration of voters, updating and revision of the Register of Voters under this section shall stop not later than 90 days before any election.”

    In its defence in the SERAP case, INEC said the registration ended in June because it needed time to update and revise the register of voters before the 90-day deadline set by the law. That’s why the judge in that case ruled that INEC can set its own deadline as it deems fit to accommodate all other processes involved in voter registration.

    Since the registration ended in July, the commission has cleaned up the register of voters and even posted it online for public review.

    But the July court ruling didn’t stop other Nigerians from suing INEC over the same issue of ending the registration early. The new November 22, 2022 ruling is a result of one of such lawsuits.

    What will INEC do?

    Now that INEC has been served with a fresh court order to resume PVC registration, Nigerians are expecting to see the commission’s reaction. If INEC obeys the order, there are only four days left for Nigerians to register before the 90-day deadline in the Electoral Act is activated.

    We’re monitoring the situation closely and will spill the tea as soon as it drops!

  • Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’d know that the 2023 presidential election is on course to be the tightest race in recent history. Forget the bluster from partisan supporters, no one knows for sure which way it’ll swing.

    At The Candidates town hall series, which we’ve been covering, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, on November 19, 2022, said he’s not a spoiler in the presidential race. 

    To substantiate his point, he mentioned a report by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that disclosed that it was printing 187 million ballot papers — twice the number of 93.5 million eligible voters, as it anticipated that the election might go into a runoff. 

    With this background, we’ve decided to break down what a runoff election entails, and what it could mean for voters.

    What is a runoff?

    A runoff describes a voting system that selects a winner after two rounds of voting. It happens when no candidate is able to meet the requirements needed to be president at the first round of balloting. The idea behind it is to ensure that whoever is elected president gets broad acceptance from across the country.

    What laws guide the conduct of a runoff in Nigeria?

    INEC is empowered by the Electoral Act 2022 (as amended) to conduct runoff elections in Nigeria. Section 134 of the Nigerian Constitution explains the conditions for this to occur. 

    To be elected as president, “A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election –

    (a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election;

    and

    (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election of at least two-thirds of all the states in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.”

    The summary of the above is that a candidate needs to get a simple majority of votes, and 25% of votes in 24 states to become president. When this doesn’t happen, we go into a runoff.

    ALSO READ: Do Opinion Polls Matter in Nigerian Presidential Elections?

    Who qualifies for a runoff?

    Section 134, subsection 3 defines who qualifies as, “(a) the candidate who scored the highest number of votes at any election held in accordance with the said subsection (2) of this section; and

    (b) one among the remaining candidates who has a majority of votes in the highest number of states, so however that where there are more than one candidate with majority of votes in the highest number of states, the candidate among them with the highest total of votes cast at the election shall be the second candidate for the election.”

    The summary here is that two candidates will go into the runoff. One is the candidate with the highest number of votes in the first round. The other candidate is the person among the rest that wins the most states. If more than one candidate in this group has won an equal number of states, then the tiebreaker is the candidate who won more votes.

    Could the 2023 election go into a runoff?

    There’s a possibility that a runoff might happen given the respective strengths of the four leading candidates. Different election polls have shown that they all possess strong support bases. INEC spokesman, Festus Okoye, said printing extra ballots has been a tradition of the commission since 1999.

    How soon after the main election can we expect a runoff?

    The Electoral Act gives INEC a maximum of 21 days to conduct a runoff. The timing is not unusual. INEC has said it’s a logistical nightmare printing another 93.5 million ballots within three weeks, hence the proactive move.

    What could it mean for voters?

    If you’re unlucky and one of your faves doesn’t make it to the next round, you may find yourself having to vote for a “lesser of two evils”. This often means that the candidates who scale through will do some serious mobilisation and have to reach out to fringe voters to gain their support. 

    Overall, this is very good for democracy. It leads to robust coalitions and helps keep candidates on their toes. For Nigeria with a history of poor leadership, a runoff, even though expensive, might be a small price to pay for good governance.

    ALSO READ: It’s 100 Days Until the 2023 Elections. What Has Happened?

  • Today, November 16, 2022, makes it exactly 100 days till the general elections scheduled for February 25, 2023. A lot has happened since campaigns officially kicked off on September 28, 2022. 

    Here are some interesting things that have happened so far, and what you can expect in the coming days.

    PDP flags off campaign with Obi chants

    Despite the many internal squabbles happening in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the party’s campaign took off in Uyo on October 10, 2022 and there were reports of a massive crowd. However, the standout moment came when PDP supporters were singing Obi kerenke chants at the rally. A truly forgettable moment for PDP’s Atiku Abubakar.

    Labour Party kicks off campaign with low turnout

    It was the turn of the Labour Party (LP) to kick-start its campaign which it did on October 29, 2022, in Nasarawa state. While the PDP had Obi supporters turn out in good numbers at its rally a few days earlier, they somehow managed to hide their faces where they were truly needed.

    Doyin Okupe, an LP spokesperson, said the state government employed tactics designed to frustrate its supporters, including scheduling an environmental sanitation on that day to limit movement. 

    He claimed that this was the first time in seven years that the state was doing such a thing, reducing its available supporters by 90 percent. Looks like there’s enough breakfast to go around.

    APC gets a hostile reception

    APC kicked off its campaign on November 15, 2022, in Plateau state. While other interesting things took place, there was also the unfortunate matter of boos and stones being reportedly hurled during the campaign.

    To be fair though, the APC in 2015 asked us to stone them if they fail to perform. So there’s that.

    What can we expect in the next 100 days?

    Things are bound to get very exciting. Expect funny soundbites, epic fails, more gaffes and mudslinging. 

    Meanwhile, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has said that while all that is happening in the background, it remains loyal to Nigerians. Already it has published its voter register online for Nigerians to make claims and objections. You can head over here to learn more.

     ALSO READ: Embarrassing Moments from 2023 Presidential Candidates so Far

  • Nearly four months after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ended its last batch of voter registrations, it has released the official register of confirmed voters. 

    I have taken a closer look at the register so you don’t have to. To help you, here are some of the major highlights, with context.  

    An explanation of Nigeria’s voter count (2019-till date)

    During the last election year (2019), Nigeria had 84 million voters.  The 2023 INEC voter register shows that the voter count has increased by 9,518,188, bringing the new count to  93.5 million. 

    It was also announced in October 2022 that 12.29 million voters had successfully completed their registration while 2.78 million voters were removed as ineligible voters. 

    Now that you know the basics, let’s look at what stood out for us in the register:

    Delisted southern voters

    When we looked at the register, the math was not ‘mathing’ for the South-South and South-East regions.

    In the South-South

    Bayelsa, a state with a small population of about 2.5 million people, had the highest number of deregistered voters in the country with 307,513 out of 444,652 new voters.

    That means 69.2 percent of the people in Bayelsa committed some “registration crimes” as stated by INEC. But this is a huge number for any state with such a small population. How true could this be?

    Rivers 

    With the population of Rivers State at 9.5million, almost half of the state was recorded as new voters with 3.5 million voters as of October 2022. But when INEC decided to clean up its data, 33 percent of that voter population was cut. 

    In the South-East

    Abia state has a population of 3.7 million people. According to INEC’s voters’ register, 72, 657 registrations were invalid out of 196,683 total registrations. 

    If there was a second position prize for deregistered voters in Nigeria, it would go to Ebonyi with 240,063 invalid registrations. Only  161,447 voters made the cut.

    In Enugu, 61,261 out of 243,656 were deregistered.

    Northern voters were hardly deregistered

    The North seems to have it great, as they have the lowest percentage of invalid voters. 

    In Zamfara, only 11.2 percent of voters were invalid out of 238,649 new voters. Overall, the total number of new voters in the north was 12.2 million, with 9.5 million valid voters and 2.7 invalid voters. 

    There were some errors with Northern voter registrations

    States like Jigawa had some clearly underage voters in the register with fake dates of birth, like this Hajara that was born in 1996 for example.

    There was also double counting with some of the voters, as some appeared on the list 3 times.

    What are people and INEC saying about this?

    On the streets, it seems like INEC and the people have two conflicting ideologies. 

    Public opinion isn’t having this, as they believe that there are conspiracies. Some don’t trust INEC to conduct a free and fair election.

    https://twitter.com/lumi_dee7/status/1591928511656300544?s=46&t=x8bJItLYYaOzfY5Vv_zLZA

    INEC has stood its ground, noting that the registration process was thorough as removals were due to double/multiple, underaged and fake registrations that failed to meet the rules of the last Continuous Voters Registration (CVR) exercise. 

    INEC chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, said: “At the end of the exercise, 12,298,944 Nigerians successfully completed the registration as new voters. All along, we have repeatedly assured Nigerians that our process of cleaning up the register is robust.”

    But would you see this after a “robust” voter registration exercise?

    The commissioner for information and voter education of INEC, Festus Okoye, backed up his buddy Yakubu to emphasize that the point of releasing the register online. This was for citizens to make their “claims and objections.” 

    How can the errors impact the 2023 elections?

    Errors such as double-counting give the voter the opportunity to vote twice for a candidate, which is considered electoral fraud under the 2022 Electoral Act. 

    Underage voting is also a crime, as it could lead to one region having more representation for a candidate than others. The law states that a person must be 18 and above before he/she is considered eligible for voting. Section 117 of the 2022 Electoral Act also gives a punishment of 12 months imprisonment or a minimum of N1 million for unqualified citizens who apply for registrations.

    What to do if you spot errors in the register

    When the name of a registered voter has been omitted or needs corrections, pick up the complaint forms at registration areas and Local Government Area (LGA)

    Wards

    To know your preferred LGA according to location, click the link here. 

  • It has been rough days for the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, aka BAT. Old allegations of his links to narcotics sprung up and forced his spokesman to go on TV to defend him. We wrote about that in our newsletter here. 

    While the BAT was still trying to get some breathing space, a documentary on his shady past was released, adding more fuel to the fire. Then the opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), released a strongly worded press release urging Nigerians not to vote for him. 

    These are tough times for the BAT and he might decide to hibernate till the storm passes.

    What did the PDP say? 

    The PDP had a lot to say. The party accused the APC of “creating tension and inducing violence”. It said that the APC, having realized they have an ineligible candidate for 2023, is choosing violence to frustrate the conduct of the 2023 elections. 

    It went on to reference BAT’s forfeiture of funds over links to drug-related offenses in the United States. The PDP warned Nigerians that a vote for the APC will ultimately be voided and called on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to intervene.

    Why is this significant?

    The PDP cited section 137 (1d) of the Nigerian constitution which deals with grounds for disqualification. As pertaining to the BAT, they highlighted the following: 

    “A person shall not be qualified for election to the office of President if he is under a sentence of death imposed by any competent court of law or tribunal in Nigeria or a sentence of imprisonment or fine for any offence involving dishonesty or fraud (by whatever name called) or for any other offence, imposed on him by any court or tribunal or substituted by a competent authority for any other sentence imposed on him by such a court or tribunal.”

    The PDP is saying that the BAT’s forfeiture in the US constitutes a fine imposed on him by a court. In this case, the Northern District of Illinois and as such, is disqualified.

    How could this play out?

    There has already been a fake report attributed to INEC saying it would look into it. While INEC has come out to debunk it, there’s no denying that it is under immense pressure to do something as the umpire.

    On the other hand, BAT’s camp says there’s no case and that the PDP’s statement is just that — a press statement.

    It is unlikely that INEC disqualifies the BAT given his high-ranking status in the APC. So just like the last election, the PDP might take up the matter in court if the BAT wins.

    Whether things will escalate to that is a question that can only be answered by February 2023. 

    So sit tight, it’s a long hard ride ahead.

    ALSO READ: Five Big Moments from the Presidential Town Hall

  • For the first time in the history of Nigerian elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has announced that it will be publishing its voter register online. If it isn’t obvious by now, that’s great news.

    INEC previously published hard copies of its voter register in its offices across the 774 local government areas (LGA) in Nigeria. You’d have had to physically go there to confirm that your details were correct. 

    Thankfully, that era is over.

    What led to the change?

    Continuous calls from individuals and even political parties urging the commission to make the switch to a digital and easily accessible register has been on for some time now. 

    The amended Electoral Act 2022 now includes this change. Because of this, INEC won’t only publish the register at its offices, it must now upload on its website.

    The lesson here is that exercising civic rights by applying pressure does pay off.

    How can I check my voter registration details?

    The online register is available for a two-week period starting from today, November 12, 2022 till November 25, 2022. Visit www.inecnigeria.org/display_register and follow the instructions.

    What else do you need to know?

    The new voter register has been cleaned up to account for double and invalid registrations. At the end of the continuous voter registration in July, 96.2 million Nigerians had been registered. After the cleanup, that number dropped to 93.5 million.

    The point of this exercise is to scrutinize the register for errors. If you notice something off about your details, note it instantly and lay a complaint at the INEC office in your LGA of registration. You’d be given a form where you can note down the things you’d like corrected.

    Remember, you have just two weeks. Good luck.

    ALSO READ: How You Can Work For INEC During the 2023 Elections

  • In a little over 100 days from today, Nigerians will head to the polls to decide who their new president would be. And while it is campaign season now, it is easy to forget that Nigeria is caught in one of its worst flooding crises ever. 

    As at October 24, 2022, 612 lives had been lost, 3.2 million people directly affected, 123,807 houses totally damaged and over 392 thousand hectares of farmland destroyed. 

    The government’s response has sadly been largely inadequate. We hate to add to the piling list of things the flood has affected but can we talk about the pending impacts on the 2023 elections for a minute? 

    You should be worried about these things ahead of the elections: 

    20 INEC offices damaged by the flood

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), led by its chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, appeared recently before the House of Representatives. He disclosed that the floods had already destroyed at least 20 of its offices across the country.

    INEC office in Edo State [Image source: Eagle Online]

    He said, “We have office rent and residential rent. So many of our offices were attacked and some actually flooded after the recent floods. We have 20 offices in that situation. 

    “For others, we just have to look for a facility to rent. From Jigawa, there was a request for us to look for three offices, following the damage caused by flooding of the offices that we occupied.”

    Inaccessible road networks

    Last month, the Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, lamented that the full extent of the flood’s damage on road infrastructure cannot yet be known. He said it would have to recede before they could make any meaningful assessment.

    Flooding in Lokoja [Image source: NAN]

    Still, it’s not difficult to imagine how severe the damage is, with the floods having affected 34 out of 36 states. It is also unlikely that any large-scale repairs can take place between now and the 2023 elections. This could mean that some major road networks might remain in a bad state even when the flood abates. 

    This might discourage voters from traveling long distances to vote ahead of election day.

    Disconnected communities and difficulty in transporting election materials

    Flooded community in Nigeria [Image source: Abraham Achirga/UNICEF]

    Beyond major roads, the road networks in many remote communities in Nigeria may pose challenges. The INEC chairman has already voiced this concern. 

    At an event hosted by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), he said one of the greatest problems it faces in the conduct of elections is poor transportation systems. This can hamper the distribution of election materials, create delays and affect the integrity of the elections.

    Displacement and disenfranchisement of voters

    While INEC promised in early September that three million Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) will be able to vote, the flooding emergency may make it difficult to live up to that promise. 

    Voters at an IDP camp in Borno [Image source NAN]

    Many more people have been displaced, with their polling units no longer accessible. Also, INEC has closed all registration for the 2023 election meaning that the newly displaced may unfortunately get disenfranchised.

    What can be done?

    For the electoral body, they’re in a tough position. Despite their best intentions, many people will find it difficult to vote. Unless a fast-tracked bill is passed by the national assembly making special allowance for newly displaced voters. 

    Also, the government needs to commit more to ensuring that more roads are fixed before 2023 to encourage higher voter turnouts than in 2019. And on the individual end, just try to stay alive. Only the living can vote.

    ALSO READ: 2.5 Million Nigerians Are Affected by 2022 Flooding Crisis