The APC is just two senators shy of a two-thirds majority in the Senate, and it feels like every other week we hear about another defection from the opposition. The idea of a one-party system is not just speculation anymore—it is starting to look like a very real possibility.
Defections, coalitions, and alliances are not new in Nigerian politics. But why is it so easy for politicians to switch sides, team up, fall out, reconcile—and then fall out again? Why does it matter so little which party a candidate belongs to? And why has it become normal for serving officials to switch parties mid-term?
The simplest answer? Ideology—or rather, the lack of it.
Victoria Oladipo, a political scientist and founder of Learn Politics NG, an organisation focused on making political education accessible, believes defections are so common in Nigeria because politicians view it as “A quest for power.”
The ideology of party politics
In places like the United States and much of Europe, politics is shaped by deep ideological divides—liberal versus conservative, left versus right. Parties are built around these core beliefs. For instance, Republicans (typically conservative) believe in lowering taxes and reducing government spending, while Democrats (typically liberal) believe that taxes should be scaled according to income and that the government should invest in providing services, such as healthcare, for the less fortunate. The tug-of-war between them defines the political landscape.
It is not just rare for politicians to switch parties in that kind of system—it is risky. It means changing your entire brand, your rhetoric, and sometimes even your values. If a politician truly believes in their party’s ideology, then jumping ship is basically off the table.
But Nigeria’s political system is built differently, and it didn’t start today.
Na ideology we go chop?
Post-colonial politics was immediately dominated by ethnically motivated regional parties, such as Obafemi Awolowo’s Action Group (AG) in the South West and Tafawa Balewa’s Northern People’s Congress (NPC) in the North.
These parties formed the foundation for the current trend of ethnically based political parties in Nigeria with regional strongholds: APGA in the South East, APC in the South West, and PDP in the South South and South East. Some are even more localised, like the NNPP in Kano.
This sort of political landscape allows for simpler, sentiment-based politics, where ideology and policy discussions often take a back seat and trivial things like ethnic loyalty and political settlement become the focus points of politicians’ campaigns. A more recent instance is Bola Tinubu, whose informal campaign slogan during the 2023 election, Emi Lokan, means “it is my turn.”
Nigerian politicians know what a largely politically illiterate populace wants to hear. And it is not ideological debates. The average Nigerian voter, typically religious and conservative, is not interested in culture wars or abstract political theory. They want real, tangible improvements in their lives. So promises of safer and better roads, steady electricity, and cheaper food are what move the needle here.
This reality was demonstrated in a 2022 study done ahead of the 2023 general elections. The study, which surveyed 1043 Nigerian voters found that 42 per cent of them wanted to hear political aspirants speak on insecurity, 28 per cent wanted to hear about the economy, while 23 per cent were more interested in job creation.
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The loopholes in the Nigerian constitution is an enabler
Political scientist, Victoria Oladipo, believes the main reason Nigerian politicians defect so easily is because there is virtually nothing stopping them. “There are no consequences for such actions, and where there are no consequences for actions, people will do whatever they like,” she said.
A Quick Look at the 1999 Constitution confirms Victoria’s statement; It only addresses the defection of legislative members, stating that they are to vacate their seats if they switch parties mid-term. However, there is no such provision for executive office holders who abandon the parties that got them elected.
Even the law for legislators contains a convenient loophole that Nigerian politicians frequently exploit: it permits party switching if the legislator’s original party experiences a “division.”
As a result, politicians often claim internal divisions at the slightest opportunity and use that as a justification to defect.
The consequences of an ideology-free politics?
So what happens when all the parties end up saying the same things. Their manifestos are basically copy-paste: infrastructure, jobs, security, development. And if everyone is selling the same product, it becomes easy for politicians to switch brands without losing credibility. There is no need to rebrand or explain themselves—they simply keep selling the same promises under a new logo.
In a system where ideology does not matter, what does matter is perceived effectiveness. If every candidate is promising the same things, then the real competition is about who can deliver, or who can convince people that they will deliver.
In theory, this kind of system—where ideology is irrelevant and messaging is uniform—is tailor-made for a one-party setup. And that may be where Nigeria is headed.
Victoria disagrees with this line of thinking. “I do not think that we are eventually going to get to a one-party system,” she said, emphasizing that Nigerian politics is too diverse, with too many major players and big personalities to fit into a single party. She points to the cracks appearing in the opposition coalition under the umbrella of the ADC and their difficulty in deciding on a frontrunner for the 2027 presidential elections.
Victoria’s assessment mirrors that of Prince Adewole Adebayo, the 2023 presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Speaking about the possibility of a one-party system, he said: “What makes a one-party state is when people think that they do not need any other party outside the one that is ruling, or when people are being forced by law not to create another party.”
Opposition leaders have accused the APC of having ambitions of a one-party state, though the APC leadership has denied it, stating that they do not need a one-party system to win elections.
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What do existing one-party states look like?
There are many countries practising one-party systems—some officially, others not so much. For instance, in Russia, there are 27 officially registered political parties. However, the ruling party, United Russia (UR), has held a parliamentary majority since 2007 and an absolute majority since 2016.
In China, the Communist Party of China (CPC) has held a monopoly on power since 1949. Though smaller parties are allowed to exist, they are all affiliated with the CPC and are not permitted any real power.
Singapore has been governed by the People’s Action Party (PAP) since its independence in 1965, though opposition parties are also allowed to exist and contest elections.
Russia, China and Singapore have very high Human Development Index (HDI) scores. Russia has an HDI of 0.832, China’s is 0.797, and Singapore’s is 0.946, indicating a generally high quality of life. However, all three countries are highly restrictive of freedoms, particularly in relation to political dissent, the press and freedom of expression. They score poorly on the Freedom of Expression Index, with Russia at 0.08, China at 0.04 and Singapore at 0.34.
To put it simply, while material gains and economic development are possible in one-party systems, they do not allow democratic norms to thrive. True democracy and its associated freedoms must be sacrificed at the altar of one-party progress.
Can we make a case for the current state of Nigerian politics?
Whether Nigerians are getting a fair deal in this ideologically poor, productivity-focused system would be a more interesting debate if Nigerian politicians were actually productive. If they delivered on their promises, we could have a discussion about whether the lost freedoms of a one-party system are worth it.
However, what we have in Nigeria is a recipe for disaster should a one-party system emerge. At present, the competition from opposition parties has not inspired the ruling party to improve its performance. So, what happens when there is no competition at all?
It is important to note that the ruling parties of Russia, China, and Singapore have fiercely nationalist ideologies. Importing the one-party system into Nigeria’s unique political environment is dangerous. Nigerian parties are more tribalistic than nationalist, so it actually risks worsening ethnic tensions.
Nigeria’s Gen Z democracy is still finding its feet
When asked why Nigerian politics is less structured when compared to some other countries, Victoria Oladipo pointed out that it is a young democracy which still has a long way to go.
“When you are 26 years old (like Nigeria’s democracy), you cannot have your whole life figured out,” she said. “I do not think that comparing Nigeria with established democracies like the United States is a fair way to look at things because Nigeria’s democracy is still quite young at 26, and America has over 200 years of democracy.”
However, she does not want that to be used as an excuse for complacency. “Still, when you are 26, you are old enough to know what you ought to do.” She wants to see Nigeria begin working towards consolidating democracy and believes a one-party system would be the wrong direction.
“I do not think there is any democracy that survives in a one-party system. Any form of government that only has one entity in power is not a democracy anymore. It is a façade of what democracy is.”
So much of Nigeria’s current leadership spent their early adulthood under military rule, and we may not see a democratic culture truly entrenched in Nigeria until those born post-1999 are old enough to take the reins of leadership.
Falling into the trap of a one-party system risks smothering our young democracy before it can truly come into its own, and its citizens can begin to reap its promised dividends.
How can the youth protect Nigeria’s democracy?
Victoria believes that strengthening multi-party politics in Nigeria requires a shift towards ideological and issue-based politics. “If we want to push ideology-based politics, we need to vote for candidates that represent the things that matter to us the most,” she said.
However, she noted that there is a gap in knowledge among Nigerian voters that prevents them from linking politics to the policies that affect their lives. To bridge this gap, she says organisations like Learn Politics NG have a big role to play. “Organisations like Learn Politics have to continue raising awareness and shaping political thinking to help people understand, draw conclusions, and make rational decisions. We need to educate citizens on the logic behind politics and why they have to vote a certain way to achieve the kind of Nigeria we desire.”
But Victoria does not want Nigerians to see voting as the only means of political engagement. She said: “I call voting and elections the highlight of democracy, but there are also many smaller, equally important factors like the relationship between citizens and the government. How often do citizens actually engage in the democratic process? For the kind of democracy we aspire to, we need to learn to speak out more. And I do not just mean protesting.”
She wants to see more citizens using democratic provisions such as the Freedom of Information Act, (which allowed a man in Ekiti to sue a local government chairman over the budget for a gate project) to hold their leaders accountable. “We cannot build the kind of democracy we want if we do not hold leaders accountable.”
“Another thing that we can do is to start joining political parties,” she said. But she wants to see more political participation even outside the existing political parties. “I am really hoping that the Independent Candidacy Bill will pass so that we will see how people can organise themselves outside of the established parties.”
Looking ahead to the 2027 elections and beyond, Victoria felt it was still too early to make any predictions about Nigeria’s political future. “I do not know what will happen; the political system is quite volatile,” she said. Whatever happens, she hopes for fairness and the continuation of Nigeria’s democratic plurality. “I would love to see, at the very least, free and fair elections. We deserve that much. And we need to maintain our democracy because it gives us something very important: freedom of choice.”
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All opinions expressed by Victoria are solely her own and do not reflect the views of any individuals, organisations, or entities she is affiliated with or represents.
