The 2023 elections in three days will go down as one of Nigeria’s most important historical events.
In the days leading up to the elections, we’ve experienced many interesting curves:
- For the first time, there’s a third force party serving as a threat to contenders from the two major political parties;
- The youths are the highest proportion of registered voters at 39.5%;
- Voters will be accredited not manually but with technology using the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS).
Out of anticipation, several polls have been published to predict the winner of the 2023 presidential election.
Using data from the voter turnout and the voting patterns of previous elections since 1999, a group of private observers; John Analoh, Ayomide Gbadegesin and Femi Labiyi, have predicted six possible outcomes for the upcoming elections.
The winner will be decided after a run-off
A run-off means a winner will be decided after two rounds of voting. This would happen if neither candidate got the majority votes, i.e. 25% of votes in 24 states. And this is very likely because each presidential candidate is a powerhouse in their own right.
Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, is expected to have many votes from the South-East, South-South and North-Central states. But Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate for the All Progressives Party (APC), may win critical states like Kaduna, Borno and Kano.
Also, the presidential candidate for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, is expected to win or come a close second in many states and even in the South-South regions.
So, while Bola Tinubu may get the most votes, he might be unable to pull off 25 per cent in 24 states.
Atiku Abubakar wins the election
For this outcome, although Peter Obi might have the most votes in the South-East. Atiku would get many votes from states in the South-South region, especially in Delta state.
Also, while the North-West and Noth-East regions vote in favour of Bola Tinubu, Atiku would win in APC powerhouses like Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara. This would ultimately propel him to victory.
Bola Tinubu wins the election
In this scenario, Tinubu wins comfortably in the South-West region and is voted favourably for in the North-East and North-West regions, particularly in Kano, Kebbi, and Kaduna.
And although Peter Obi might perform well in the South-East, Atiku is also expected to pull strong figures from the South-south region.
Atiku Abubakar win the election
If Atiku does exceptionally well in South-south regions and APC strongholds like Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara. In that case, he could have the majority vote in 24 states.
Bola Tinubu wins the elections
It’s also probable that while Tinubu does a clean sweep in the South-west, he would also come a close second in the South-south, northeast and north-west regions. This would very easily push him to victory.
Peter Obi wins the elections
In this scenario, the elections will end with the third-force candidate, Peter Obi taking the coveted prize.
For this to happen, Rabiu Kwankwaso, presidential candidate for the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), gets good numbers in the North-West and some parts of the North-east region. And Peter Obi wins Lagos and gets the majority votes in the North-Central.
While we can’t say who the winner will be, the one thing that can be confirmed is that the 2023 elections will shape Nigeria’s future.